After months of fierce campaigning by electoral candidates, Brazilian voters cast their ballots on October 7^th, in what is possibly one of the most controversial elections in the country’s recent history. In addition to choosing their president, Brazilians were also set to vote for state governor, and representatives of the lower house and the upper house.

The dispute for the presidency, as well as the dispute for state governor in 13 states and the Federal District, will extend to a runoff, which will take place on October 28^th. Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing candidate from a party of low congressional representation until recently, received 46% of valid votes. The runner-up, Fernando Haddad, from the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), was the choice of 29% of voters.

The result reflects Brazil’s current political climate of severe polarization. On one side, there are the millions of Brazilians that were lifted from poverty during former president Lula’s terms of office from 2003 to 2011 and have hence become loyal voters to his party, the Workers’ Party. But as he was succeeded by Dilma Rousseff, also from the Workers’ Party, Brazil’s internal hurdles, aggravated by the sharp decline in commodity prices, started to become apparent. Ms. Rousseff scraped into a second term, which she was not able to finish, due to charges of violation of fiscal accountability. Additionally, it was during her mandate that one of Brazil’s largest corruption scandals erupted, with the Workers’ Party being largely implicated. It was due to that investigation that former president Lula was sentenced to jail on corruption charges, precluding his candidacy in 2018.

The scandal fueled an anti-leftist feeling among Brazil’s elites, who placed their bets in Jair Bolsonaro, whose extremist stance is seen as the only one able to bar the Workers’ Party from continuing in power. With Bolsonaro’s victory being more likely than that of Haddad – who replaced Lula as the Workers’ Party’s candidate after Lula’s conviction –, the markets reacted positively. The stock market might reach a record-high volume of operations this Monday, October 9^th, and the dollar exchange rate reached its lowest value within the last two months.

Also adding up to the likelihood of Bolsonaro’s victory is the new configuration of Congress. Many elected candidates belong to parties whose political views are compatible with Bolsonaro’s, which would enable him to get congressional approval for his proposals. Voters might take that advantage in consideration, especially those who are still indecisive, and for whose votes the final contenders will be fighting the fiercest.

Source: Valor Econômico, The Economist and other publications